Should we worry about this new virus?

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fabindia
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Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by fabindia »

It's a bit hard to say at the moment.

It certainly looks as if it is going to be difficult to contain and may develop into a worldwide pandemic. What the mortality rates will be for developed countries is going to be hard to say but if it does reach the UK it will put an unbearable strain on the NHS.

Closed to home here in Thailand the Chinese is perhaps the biggest tourist market, plane loads are flown in every hour, so it is difficult to see how Thailand will contain it.

Already they have ran out of surgical masks here in Thailand but they probably don't do much good anyway.
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by Gwenoakes »

Not sure I would use the word 'worry' to describe what I feel about the virus.
I am fearful of what it may turn into, but again trying to think logically if it does turn into a world wide pandemic, there is not much I will be able to do to control it and I think that the NHS will most likely fold like a pack of cards. We are not equipped in monetary terms, sufficient doctors or nurses or any other way you want to look at it in this country at the present time.
One of our hospitals is still closed during the evening and night time and it was only supposed to be a 'temporary' measure and this is years down the line. They are now blaming lack of trained staff.
I think they should have stopped people travelling to and from China a long while ago, especially bearing in mind the Chinese new year being celebrated.
I read somewhere that a prominent doctor did say that the masks were virtually useless, whether that is actually true or not I do not know.
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wendy
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by wendy »

We will all manage, some way or another.
Our Country is better placed to 'manage' than those less fortunate.
No need to worry. Not up to us really. Wash your hands seems to be the advice given. So is it air bourne ? Not sure.
Press will big it up into Armaggedon
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bikesandbirdsbob
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by bikesandbirdsbob »

Hi , There is a side issue that most people have not realised yet.
People that are only paid if working , used to large amounts of o/t and weekend work , shift pay etc. They may not have it but may have to stay at home for weeks on holiday and when returned .
So 2 weeks planed holiday could give a 6 week with out pay / reduced earnings .
this will be the problem .
Should no large gatherings happen , no football matches and running and team games gyms swimming pools . Schools ?
Life would become very much different .
Food and supplies would also be effected .
So it is not the bug but what it may cause .
Bob
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Mo
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by Mo »

A private school in Cheshire has closed after a trip to Italy.
I am slightly surprised at the fuss over this, we don't quarantine everyone when there is a flu outbreak, and for most people the symptoms are for less than flu (as I understand it). OK that is slightly tongue in cheek, but it is the thought that crosses my mind.
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kitla
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by kitla »

The issue is that we have no antiviral meds or vaccine against this one, so people with weak immune systems cant be protected against it or helped to fight it as with most flu. I'm not worried for myself or most of my family as we are fit & healthy but I would worry if my 6month old grandaughter caught it.
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lancashire lass
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by lancashire lass »

Mo wrote:A private school in Cheshire has closed after a trip to Italy.
I am slightly surprised at the fuss over this, we don't quarantine everyone when there is a flu outbreak, and for most people the symptoms are for less than flu (as I understand it). OK that is slightly tongue in cheek, but it is the thought that crosses my mind.


I think the problem is that unlike flu, without any vaccine available vulnerable people like the elderly or with underlying medical conditions are at a seriously high risk. And because it is a new virus, the data and predictability of the contagion is still a big unknown .... some people are now said to be exhibiting signs of illness after 14 days which at the moment has been the maximum quarantine period for this coronavirus. It is said to be highly contagious so the probability of becoming infected will rise - bear in mind also that those who are critically ill will occupy hospital beds along with the current trend of flu victims as well. So it makes sense to contain it before it gets out of hand.

And people HAVE been dying ... a country like China completely shuts down at great risk to its economy - personally that concerns me to think that the supposed low % of deaths reported so far is possibly a lot higher than we are being told. I wouldn't dismiss it so casually.
fabindia
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by fabindia »

So hard to predict at the moment.

'Normal' flu is a big killer of those with existing vulnerabilities but at least us oldies get an annual flu jab. Interestingly, I don't believe anyone under 10 years old has died from it, so it appears to be very much a killer of older people.

We have cases here in Thailand but so far not too many.
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by bikesandbirdsbob »

Hi well 1918 comes to mind being a history nut.
This is going to show how and what sort of communities we have in Britain and around the world.
It should be taken seriously.
People that do not are likely to be the spreaders .
3 things rule applies .
1 Can you do something about it . Then do it.
2 Is there nothing you can do about it . Except it.
3 The wise man knows the difference .

I am watching it like looking into a fish tank , how it develope`s etc.
Can I do anything , not much .
A lot I can not do .
Not spending a great deal worrying as not going on holiday , no great financial concerns , and so fat that I will last ages with out eating …….
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by Gwenoakes »

We have heard today that two schools one of which is just 6 miles from us have closed. As far as I understand no one has tested positive and it is just a precautionary measure at the moment because of a possible connection somewhere else.
I will watch this space to see what transpires.
bikesandbirdsbob
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by bikesandbirdsbob »

Hi , well as I am on an Island I should feel safer , but in a global world only safe place would be in a desert where no body would want to go.
Have to check to see how long the 1918 epidemic lasted .
I think best part of a year all around the world.

I noticed that more sports events are being cancelled so my bike races maybe stopped as well . That would hurt....
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fabindia
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by fabindia »

bikesandbirdsbob wrote:Hi , well as I am on an Island I should feel safer.


So are we - but an island where we get lots of Chinese visitors :-D

bikesandbirdsbob wrote:I think best part of a year all around the world.


Yes, I think we could be in for the long haul here. The problem with a new virus is at the start 100% people have never been exposed to it or have any immunity. The more it spreads, the more people get some exposure of one sort or another and the infection rates naturally fall.

The biggest problem will be the stress it puts on the medical services. I doubt that our already over stretched NHS will cope that well. There will many hospital appointments and operations that will get postponed until after the crisis is over.
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by bikesandbirdsbob »

Hi potentially a lot more problems like feeding and caring for house bound families.
Loss of earnings profits for companies then pension funds . Global village , becomes more inward looking .
seems it is a race to summer when it will not survive so well . Dry up .
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lancashire lass
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by lancashire lass »

bikesandbirdsbob wrote:seems it is a race to summer when it will not survive so well


hmmm, not strictly true - the reason why we appear to get more colds and flu in winter is because people are indoors for longer, windows and doors closed and everyone congregate in same living areas and have closer proximity so risk of catching one is far greater than in summer (plus school holidays so the super spreaders are not grouped together) In the case of coronavirus in summer, people like to travel abroad for their holidays and so global spread is actually likely to rise exponentially. This virus has up to 14 day (or possibly more) incubation period so by the time symptoms show, others have been infected.

And then there's re-infection - this thing is not going away any time soon. And spread to other countries may have been happening several weeks earlier and are only just becoming apparent now that there is greater awareness ... for example, a colleague of mine was off work for a fortnight with a cough and unable to breathe in early February and was treated for pneumonia but before getting too ill to work, he had "soldiered on" and was in close contact with a number of people, including myself. Looking at the symptoms of Covid-19 - oh wait, aren't they the same? So it's possible the coronavirus may have been mistaken for other seasonal illnesses and some people only have mild symptoms.

My concern is that this country and like many others, are sending the wrong message of "don't panic, many more people die of this, that and the other" and to "carry on as normal and of course you can go abroad for your holiday" (just avoid the infected areas) ... seriously? In my personal opinion, we need to start reducing the impact NOW, not wait until we have many more cases before acting because by then, it is too late. Talk about shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.
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Mo
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Re: Should we worry about this new virus?

Post by Mo »

Should we be flitting here there and everywhere anyway. Using resources and contributing to global warming. Yes, holidays are nice, seeing exotic new places (or lying on a hot beach if that's what you prefer) but at what cost. The spread of exotic illnesses is just another reason.
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